2019 market predictions commodity prices hedge funds Investing investment and automation JEAN PIERRE VERSTER Latest Market Commentator option trading strategy Protea Equity Long-Short Fund quantimental shorting shorting shares trading strategies

A man known from the Steinhoff short provides information on the 2019 station

Content hosted by iono.fm

RYK VAN NIEKERK: Welcome to the first Market Commentator Podcast in 2019 – a weekly podcast the place I converse to leading investment professionals. My guest as we speak is Jean Pierre Verster: he’s a portfolio supervisor and hedge fund professional at Fairtree Capital. Jean Pierre, welcome to the present

JEAN PIERRE VERSTER: Thanks, please be right here.

RYK VAN NIEKERK: Jean Pierre, 2018 was a terrible yr for shareholders, particularly in the local market. All shares fell by 11% and was the worst performance of the index since 2008. We have now additionally lately seen a 1.3% progress in the World Bank forecast in South Africa, which is at greatest pedestrian. We even have elections this yr, so we will anticipate a variety of propaganda which will get up the market. In this context, what do you anticipate from 2019?

JEAN PIERRE Verstere: the introduction Rykin talked about that I’m a manager of hedge funds, and that I may also shorten the shares, so if you mentioned that it was the shareholders is a troublesome yr, I might say that it was a troublesome yr for long-term equity exposures for buyers.

If we’re capable of make short-term shares, then in 2018 there have been fairly a number of opportunities and in the similar method 2019 I might say that the crystal ball is damaged. I do not know what is occurring in the macro financial system; I am not positive about the election and what the remaining result is: if the ANC has a direct majority or if we’ve a small chance in the event that they get just a little beneath 50%, they usually need to look for a coalition with, for instance, EFF. very low chance. However because of this uncertainty, I build portfolios and fund belongings as long as short particular person shares and I don't should predict what the market often does.

I can try to become profitable if the market rises or the rising market falls and in addition to, I exploit a number of automation in my process to help me, because as human beings we use our human judgment and drive us to worry and greed in choice making, which signifies that typically we make mistakes in our choice. However through the use of automation and a pc in addition to an objective means of automated process, it helps an individual to make better selections – extra goal selections and less emotional selections. So I don't want it to sound like a replica, but I actually don't know the place the market goes. I can say that usually I find the market roughly appreciated, so they don’t seem to be very low cost, but in addition not very costly. We will go into specific sectors or particular market segments in more element for those who like.

RYK VAN NIEKERK: I just need to return to the reference to automation – what is it? Is it the pc program you wrote to take a look at totally different features of businesses or investment alternatives? How does it work?

JEAN PIERRE VERSTER: It's an integral part of my 'quantitative' course of. The phrase 'quantitative' is a mix of traditional primary methods of analyzing corporations and the quantitative method of analyzing companies, and automation is its quantitative element. In my course of, every quantitative process and every quantitative process from manager to manager can be totally different.

How do I apply it, because I have my own templates, firm templates that may mechanically tell me the value of the firm, which is predicated on the business financial system. I don't want a inventory worth to inform me the value; I don't need human judgment to tell me the value; I don't even need predictions to inform me the worth.

My models work in this means (and this is ownership – I wrote them over the previous 10 years) that it tells me mechanically, name it naive or probably or goal appreciation of the firm, after which I can use human judgment to guage whether or not that is affordable. Does the future look fairly totally different from what the pc says, as a result of the pc extrapolates the long-term, long-term average effectively? And I feel this was a really effective and very helpful approach and a really priceless software that helped me make better selections as a result of I start with the more than likely worth of the firm, and then I can use the human judgment to vary it,

Revenue from Short-Term Shares

RYK VAN NIEKERK : The Protea Fairness Long-Short Fund returned 24% in 2018, a lot better than -11% of JSE and might be certainly one of the greatest performances of the South African collective funding system final yr. How much of this 24% was achieved by shortening the shares?

JEAN PIERRE VERSTER: About 7 % of the revenue was short-lived. We had a adverse return on our lengthy place; we acquired a Three-Four% return on particular situations. These are, for example, corporations that have introduced acquisitions, or in case you are considering of certain corporations that have acquired holdings in different corporations, you can also make an extended short commerce, referred to as an arbitrage trade, which can also be thought-about a special state of affairs, and my particular state of affairs elevated by Three% to Four%.

Then I additionally use various buying and selling strategies, as well as rising inventory trading methods, and tough trading strategies, the place I anticipate the share worth to rise sharply in the short term as a consequence of the catalyst and a further 10% return. Much of this 10% choice buying and selling strategy was also a downward development. So if I take a look at direct shorts and falling options, my shorts have produced about 15% of my 24% return when all our fund investments have been value.

RYK VAN NIEKERK: In fact you’re quite well-known for the invitation of Steinhoff and the short Steinhoff just earlier than the collapse in December 2017. How much money did you make from that place?

JEAN PIERRE VERSTER: Short for Steinhoff – and I don't often reveal shorts – however I'm gonna go first. Whenever you come out publicly and say you’re a hedge fund supervisor, you’ve got a short share, often the short administration of our company doesn’t prefer it very a lot and you should not all the time be invited to the next revenue statement

: You aren’t a short individual, CEO of the company, however the CEO and others typically do it in the enterprise as if it have been personal, as in case you are short. That's why I don't often reveal my short positions.

You get activist shortcuts, resembling Viceroy, who go public and their approach of working is admittedly to use the media and use feelings to attempt to drive down inventory costs, but that's just one phase of the short group, and I might say it's much less chargeable for the path group and hedge Fund Group

The hedge fund group, once they shorten shares [it]isn’t drawing the attention of the public media, however moderately as a danger administration device that can compensate for a few of their long positions.

So I went to the public with Steinhoff simply because the event was essential and Steinhoff participated in additional than 7% of my fund's return for 2017. But most of the cash, all the money, was made in Steinhoff's short position in December 2017 when Steinhoff's massive drop over R50: was lower than R10. In 2018, Steinhoff had little impression on my fund's return.

Short Assets

RYK VAN NIEKERK: If I take a look at sector-specific allocations for an area fund, we’ll first take a look at your short investments: you’re apparently short on health and assets.

JEAN PIERRE Verstere: I am as soon as once more gone on what goal valuation models are telling me and what fashions have been telling me that sure shares and sure sectors (it can be any part of all sectors) in this case, certain commodity sector and the well being sector's shares are expensive

I seen these shares, I used human scores and decided to wind up quantitative course of, yes, I agree with the model. I feel the raw materials corporations, sure corporations, I’ve a quick, common uncooked material prices that these corporations promote the produced commodities are greater than they have been on average in recent times.

Over the past 18 months, there was a number of raw materials prices. Nevertheless, at this stage, we now feel that these commodity costs are once more above the average, and I do not know what might trigger them to shift to a mean. However this phenomenon is, by its very nature, the inverse of the common, and my expectation is that these commodity prices may even return to a mean sooner or later, which signifies that if this occurs, commodity shops will probably be overestimated if uncooked materials costs fall. So this can be a dissertation on certain raw material corporations

RYK VAN NIEKERK: Jean Pierre stated final yr the greatest shares of JSE have been AngloGold Ashanti, Anglo American, [BHP] (previously referred to as BHP Billiton) and then there are golden fields on the listing. But particularly Anglos and Billiton both remodeled 21%, AngloGold with 41%, which appeared to be a fairly strong performance on larger events.

JEAN PIERRE VERSTER: Excellent efficiency and subsequently short positions in the commodity sector in the commodity sector I discuss with are current positions. In October and December, I put these short issues right into a commodity state, not at the beginning of 2018, and so we call it near the end of those corporations you talked about that I really feel near the prime

Keep in mind that you additionally get a broad idea of two kinds of companies, get cyclical corporations and get defensive corporations or long-term mergers.

Raw materials corporations are cyclical in nature, haven’t any competitive benefit;

If uncooked materials corporations and cyclical corporations have usually been very robust, once again, returning to average phenomena signifies that it is more likely to be adopted thereafter

RYK VAN NIEKERK: AngloGold additionally carried out very nicely in December and most of the gold shares truly met in December.

JEAN PIERRE VERSTER: Sure, and so in December I obviously received harm as a result of I received some of these raw materials corporations in November they usually rose in December. Subsequently, it is necessary that hedge funds as soon as again be a fund group, and you have a technique of any type in the class and have totally different hedge fund managers who have been exposed to totally different risks. My private danger of danger could be very low with regards to excessive short exposure. I need to maintain a short exposure to sure corporations less than 5% of the firm, so if one thing sudden occurs and the firm with which I am short, rising prices and shares, say twice, I noticed solely

Quick healthcare

RYK Van Niekerk: Different majority of short-term positions are in the healthcare sector. Aspen had fallen to 51% final yr – I'm positive you made money there. However why the healthcare business?

JEAN PIERRE VERSTER: As soon as once more, there are specific corporations, and it's not simply Aspen, but there are some corporations in the health care business that had appeared like me with my model in 2018. The health sector is short, which I in all probability had in the last half of 2018, so as soon as once more I put extra in halfway to multiple well being care company. It returned once once more to the incontrovertible fact that these corporations have been expensive and, once they announced the numbers, it was clear that the progress in organic revenue was inadequate.

The debt ratios have been high, and when progress, high debt ratios and a change in share stake from individuals who assume that the share [that] has achieved for a very long time, will proceed to do properly. But you once more have a return to the average phenomenon, which signifies that it might be the end of the common time. The share worth might have a really sharp response, and that is what we noticed in the healthcare business.

RYK VAN NIEKERK: How typically do you modify short positions?

JEAN PIERRE Verstere: My positions are lengthy in nature as lots of what I’ve been for over a yr; a couple of months. Relies upon on whether my dissertation is operating out, and I still consider that the corporations are short or the information will come and change my vision and look short, as a result of I feel the firm's outlook seems a lot better, or the share worth has thus far declined or the share worth has dropped to date that it’s not a pretty short . But I in all probability have longer-term short positions than the average hedge fund supervisor because I focus on the firm's fundamentals relatively than the share worth change. Which means in the long run, we will also take a stand on the short aspect

Monetary business

RYK VAN NIEKERK: In the long term, it is apparent that you are in favor of financing.

JEAN PIERRE VERSTER: To start with, should you take a look at the sectoral classification of JSE, the financing consists of banks, life insurance corporations, basic monetary administration and real estate corporations. So it is a very giant sector, defined as an financial system, and I have publicity to everyone by calling it the financial sector. It isn’t yet that I took a top-down strategy and stated that the monetary sector seems to be low cost, however fairly from a bottom-up perspective, I made a decision to be long-term with several shares and take place in the financial sector. 19659002] So I’ve a number of real estate company for a long time.

We have now seen that South Africa has property underneath strain, and much has been discounted to share worth. So any optimism, attainable modifications in the prospects, if we will say that buyers have a more favorable consequence in elections, could possibly be fairly good for certain real property corporations.

I’ve for a very long time various financial institution shares for the similar causes, and I have long a couple of basic monetary shares, and I would not have an extended life in the area. So it provides you some sense of location with regards to stocks

RYK VAN NIEKERK: What number of shares do you maintain in the portfolio?

JEAN PIERRE VERSTER: On average, I like 80-100 shares. Once again, we speak about diversifying portfolio shares and that it isn’t just one or two or three concentrated high beliefs that if I get it right, I will do it properly and if I get it incorrect I'll do it very badly. However it’s a well-diversified portfolio, and it allows the chances of labor, I feel, as a result of I do know that I am improper very often.

I'm not proper with all the investments I’ve made, but in case you are more than you’re incorrect and you have a flexible portfolio, it signifies that if you find yourself flawed it gained't harm you a lot. However if you find yourself in the proper time, the incremental edge in the process part can mix and result in a mean investor return

RYK VAN NIEKERK: The fund is finally costly: TER (complete value ratio) is about 7.4 %. In case you add a business value to it, it's about 8.1%. It’s clear that the fund was very profitable last yr and also you earned rewards, however is this lifelike, such a price associated with a collective funding scheme?

JEAN PIERRE VERSTER: Properly, it depends on what the investor is. If an investor needs the least expensive product, they should go to an index fund that could be very reasonably priced. If an investor needs to take a position more than average towards a manager and are prepared to pay a greater outcome for a greater end result, a efficiency reward scheme may be applicable for those buyers.

The investor's 24% return on this fund is in any case payments. For those who add a premium of simply over 5%, it signifies that the fund's gross worth was over 30% and as a consequence of the payroll structure, which encourages the manager and aligns the interests of the manager and the investor, meaning I took over the average cost in 2018 because of excellent performance.

It’s important that hedge funds, virtually all of them, have the precept of a excessive watermark, which signifies that if I do much less nicely in 2019 and don’t exceed the money limit, then I can’t charge any charge. If I give a unfavorable return, I need to exchange the unfavourable return before I can start charging again. So in a specific yr with outstanding performance, the Efficiency Part cost appears very excessive, and many people are afraid of the fund due to it. Over time, if the manager can continue to generate greater than common earnings – even after a mean premium – the investor wins and the hedge fund wins.

RYK VAN NIEKERK: We now have to go away it. Thank you, Jean Pierre. It was Jean Pierre Verster. He is a portfolio manager and hedge fund professional at Fairtree Capital.